Prediction Markets         

Background.  Prediction markets are a method for determining the outcome of various events from project schedules to elections.  Its long time use and success are based primarily on the fact that knowledgeable people will place their money on most likely outcomes regardless of their personal biases and preferences.  Prediction markets have also been referred to as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, and virtual markets.  Prediction markets are used by many corporations including Hewlett-Packard, Google, Microsoft, GE and many others. 

Basics. Prediction markets are setup at World Voting Booth just like a normal vote.  See Initiate a Vote/Prediction Market.  Of the four voting methods available at World Voting Booth, the cumulative voting method is the most appropriate for prediction markets.   Each participant is given a certain amount of cash for placing bets on the event outcome they feel is most likely.   Of course at WVB, this is virtual cash since online gambling is not legal.  The vote can be repeated at various intervals to get a prediction market snapshot at various times. 

Example.  For example, if you want to determine the most likely time a project will be complete, provide, say, fifty virtual dollars to all those associated directly and indirectly with the project effort.  No dollars are given to people not involved with the project.  Setup a vote asking "When do you think the project will actually be complete?"  with answer selections of various expected times, say, February, March, April, May and none of the above.  With cumulative voting each person has 10 votes (virtual dollars) allotted all of which must be spent.  Each voter registers and votes within a specified time frame and uses the automatic receipt email feature to record their bet.  Whichever date has the most votes is the most accurate indication of the actual outcome.  Repeat the vote at say, five times during the project. 

For more on prediction markets see Wikipedia.